ight then.
Ye've signed up. Good lad. Now ye've to pick a team off a grid of names that, if ye've never watched a bike race in yer life, reads like a phone book from a country ye cannae spell. Sit down. I'll walk ye through it.
I rode this race eleven times and never won a stage. Fetched water, blocked the wind, buried myself on the front so better men could take the glory. Which means I ken exactly what every one of these riders is worth — I've ridden behind the lot of them, or their fathers.
Before ye pick a single soul, understand the one thing that matters: the contest is no won at the top. Ye draft one Favourite, one Contender, two Dark Horses, two Long Shots. Yer favourite scores at face value. Yer dark horses, one-and-a-half times. Yer long shots, double. So the lads everyone's heard of are just yer wee anchor. The race — yer race — is won down in the weeds, with the names ye dinnae know yet. That's where I earn my keep.
Tier A — The Favourites
Two men. That's the whole of it, and it's near enough a coin toss between giants.
Tadej Pogačar attacks like he's late for his tea. Wins on the climbs, wins in the sprints, wins on days he's no meant to. If ye want to sleep at night, pick him.
Jonas Vingegaard won the Giro this spring and came out the far side sharper than he's been in years. Quieter than Pogačar, colder, and he's beaten him before on the high mountains. The mountains in this Tour are cruel and they come late. Make of that what ye will.
Munro's verdict: Ye cannae go wrong, which is exactly why this pick won't win it for ye. Take the one yer gut says, and spend yer thinking on the tiers below.
Tier B — The Contenders
Here's a proper decision. Ye can back a man who'll grind out high finishes for three weeks, or ye can back a fast man who'll win ye stages by the handful.
Isaac del Toro just won the Dauphiné. The boy's on fire, and form like that doesnae cool overnight. Remco Evenepoel is a motor against the clock and a podium threat — though these mountains will ask him hard questions. Paul Seixas — nineteen years old, the whole of France leaning on his shoulders, and this his first Tour. Sentiment's a grand thing. It's also a poor tactic. Mind that.
And the fast men — Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen, Mathieu van der Poel. There's no a sprinter alive does it better. Van der Poel especially — he'll wear yellow in the first week and win on days the pure sprinters cannae.
Munro's verdict: Want points early and often? Take a sprinter. Playing the long game? Take del Toro while he's hot. Just dinnae pick on the jersey colour ye like best.
Tier C — The Dark Horses (1.5× — this is where ye win)
Sit up now. Two picks, each worth half again as much, and most folk waste them. Ye want riders who do something — win a mountain stage, steal the climber's jersey, get up the road and stay there.
Ben Healy races like he's allergic to the bunch — long-range digs, wore the yellow jersey last year off sheer cheek. Richard Carapaz and Lenny Martinez will fight for the polka-dot climber's jersey like it owes them money — points every mountain day. Giulio Ciccone, Michael Storer, Valentin Paret-Peintre win mountain stages when the favourites are busy marking each other. Magnus Cort and Matej Mohorič are breakaway foxes — they pick their day and they're gone. Juan Ayuso has top-five legs on his good days; the trouble is knowing which day ye'll get. And Julian Alaphilippe — past his peak, aye, but he's won more from a breakaway than most win in a career, and the crowd lifts him.
Munro's verdict: Take one climber who'll chase the polka-dot jersey and one breakaway chancer. Two scoring lines the favourites cannae touch. The col doesnae care who ye drafted — but it rewards the brave.
Tier D — The Long Shots (2.0× — the lottery)
Double points. And I'll be straight: most of these men couldnae win a stage if ye gave them a motorbike. They carry bottles and bury themselves for their leaders — same as I did. But. Two or three get in the right breakaway on the right day, and suddenly ye've doubled up on a stage win nobody saw coming.
The trick is to pick the chancers, no the water-carriers. The restless ones — Quinn Simmons, Victor Campenaerts, the breakaway-minded engines who attack when there's nothing to gain. No the quiet domestique who'll never once show his face at the front.
Munro's verdict: Ye cannae win the Tour from the break — but ye can win this contest from it. Spend these two picks on ambition, no obligation.
Last word
Pick yer giant. Take a fast man or a hot one. Then spend yer real cunning on the dark horses and the chancers, because that's the ground where folk who've never seen a bike race beat the ones who think they know it all.
The peloton has a long memory. And so do I. Draft well.
— Munro